Finding the Next Curve

Context

[FIRMCO] is a large, established company operating globally in complex markets. Think of a hybrid between:

• Siemens – diversified industrial technology, automation, energy systems.
• LVMH / Prada – high-end consumer brands with deep design, retail, and supply-chain complexity.

Over the past decade, [FIRMCO] has:

• Built a strong portfolio in [core verticals; instructor can pick: industrial automation, smart buildings, luxury fashion, cosmetics, etc.].
• Invested heavily in digital tools (ERP, CRM, MES, PLM), but AI usage remains fragmented: isolated pilots in marketing, predictive maintenance, fraud detection, etc.
• Faced rising competitive pressure from:
• Digitally native entrants (e.g., D2C brands, AI-native SaaS providers).
• Global platform players who own customer interfaces and data.
• Supply-chain volatility and regulatory scrutiny (ESG, AI governance).

At the board level, there is consensus that “we need an AI strategy”, but little agreement on what that actually means beyond:

• Hiring data scientists and “Chief AI Officer”-type roles.
• Running more pilots.
• Buying generic AI tools and co-pilots.

Your firm’s strategy office has recently engaged with a new Cognitive Infrastructure Framework (as described in the background note you read). This framework proposes modeling the firm as a quadpartite network:

• F – the firm itself.
• J – the job roles and tasks inside the firm (from job descriptions).
• A – AI capabilities (domain → subdomain → task, benchmarked from research like PapersWithCode).
• T – tradable outputs: products and services you sell (goods, services, AI-enabled offerings).

By analyzing the matrices between these layers—M_FJ, M_JA, M_AT—the firm can:

• Understand which tasks are exposed to which AI capabilities.
• See whether AI will augment or substitute specific roles.
• Identify adjacent products and services (T) that are within reach if the firm builds certain AI capabilities (A) and task competencies (J).

At the same time, firm leadership is conscious of Cognitive Capital risks:

• AI tools make it easy to generate content, forecasts, and designs.
• But over-reliance on shortcuts could erode deep expert judgment (the core of the brand and its engineering excellence).
• Organizational change, not just tech procurement, will determine whether AI is a competitive advantage or a distraction.

Your Role

You are part of a cross-functional strategic task force for [FIRMCO]. The CEO and board have asked you to help answer three intertwined questions:

• Where should AI plug into our current businesses to make us significantly more competitive over the next 5–7 years?
• What new products, services, or business models become realistically reachable if we build the right AI capabilities and Cognitive Capital?
• How should we sequence investments, manage risk, and govern AI, given market, regulatory, and organizational constraints?

All groups will work on the same firm [FIRMCO] (you can imagine it as Siemens-like if industrial, or LVMH/Prada-like if consumer luxury), but each group will adopt a different internal persona.