Keeping the Lights On in the Age of AI

Context

By the late 2020s, the US power grid is under simultaneous pressure from:

• Rapid load growth in certain regions driven by data centers, electrification of transport and buildings, and industrial reshoring.
• Aging transmission and distribution infrastructure that was not designed for today’s load patterns or climate risks.
• A generation fleet shifting from dispatchable fossil units toward variable renewables and battery storage.

The American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure gives overall US infrastructure a “C” grade, noting incremental improvement but persistent underinvestment and vulnerability in many systems, including energy infrastructure [ASCE, 2025 report card overview, e.g. summarized in ASCE’s coverage at: https://www.asce.org/publications-and-news/civil-engineering-source/society-news/article/2025/03/25/asce-report-card-gives-us-infrastructure-highest-ever-c-grade; full report: https://infrastructurereportcard.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Full-Report-2025-Natl-IRC-WEB.pdf].

At the same time, regional transmission organizations (RTOs) like ERCOT (Texas) and PJM (Mid-Atlantic and Midwest) are revising their resource adequacy assessments as:

• Forecast peak demand rises sharply due to large flexible loads (data centers, industrials). See for example analyses of large load growth and data centers in ERCOT and PJM from DOE/FERC, NERC reliability assessments, and market commentary such as:
• DOE’s Evaluating the Reliability and Security of the United States Electric Grid (2025) [link via DOE: https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2025-11/DOE%2520Final%2520EO%2520Report%2520%2528REVISED%2520OCT%252027%2529.pdf]
• Energy Innovation’s Grid Reliability During the Clean Energy Transition (2024–25) [PDF: https://energyinnovation.org/wp-content/uploads/Grid-Reliability-During-the-Clean-Energy-Transition.pdf]
• Extreme weather events expose vulnerabilities in both winter and summer seasons (e.g., NERC Winter and Long-Term Reliability Assessments:
• 2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment (NERC, corrected July 2025): https://www.nerc.com/globalassets/our-work/assessments/2024-ltra_corrected_july_2025.pdf)

At the same time, global demand for low‑carbon electricity is rising as countries pursue net-zero goals, and supply chain constraints (critical minerals, equipment, skilled labor) limit the speed of new generation and transmission build‑out. The US grid’s reliability is no longer purely a domestic engineering question; it intersects with global competition for clean energy technology, foreign investment, and national security concerns.